What Jose Baez Thinks of the Zimmerman/Martin Case & Other Misc. Thoughts

Will George be spending more time in a prison suit? Doubt it.

With the trial of George Zimmerman almost here, I've been writing a lot about the case but I feel like I need to preface my thoughts with a quick disclaimer.

Based on the available evidence, witness statements and Florida law I do not think there is a sufficient basis for a murder change for Zimmerman. Do I think he has a valid self defense claim? Most likely. Do I think he is telling 100% of the truth? Probably not. However, that is just speculation on my part because in order to be a liar you must have proof of lies and minor inconsistencies within a story he's told at several different times is not sufficient for me. For instance, him recalling Martin approaching him from the darkness, or the bushes, the fences or simply from behind...that doesn't strike me as an inconsistency because we don't know if he is remembering things differently, or speculating or if it was simply somewhere in the darkness, by the bushes, where the fence is from behind. The human memory is not a DVR and can be imperfect in respects to accuracy and sequence of events.

One thing is for sure, I never really bought into the media narrative of the case. Too many loose ends, too much speculation, and it all seemed agenda driven. Very early in the case we were supposed to believe Zimmerman was a crazed racist and Trayvon was a scared little boy. But what facts were we basing that on? Why were we not supposed to take things at face value and assume Zimmerman thought Martin was suspicious and called police while keeping an eye on him. Why would a scared kid walk up to the "creepy" guy in the truck with his hand in his waistband? Its questions like that in correlation to the uncertainty of the fight and lack of evidence that made me second guess the narrative of the media.

Conversely, its hard to understand why Zimmerman would avoid confronting Martin from the get go, and later at his truck but instead call the police and later proceed to unjustifiably kill him when police were just minutes away and for all he knew, a dozen witnesses watching. Seems like a risky move, unless of course, you've run out of options.

The downplaying of Zimmerman's injuries have been a trend from beginning here as well. First it was omitting the notion that there was any fight at all. Then, attempting to analyze grainy police station video from the night of the shooting to try and point out there were no injuries. Once the injuries came to light, it turned into talk of how the lacerations weren't that bad and his nose looked fine and he didn't bleed that much. There was no shortage of internet doctors trying to play off his injuries like they were shaving nicks. Luckily here in the real world there is no legal preponderance as to how much you have to bleed before you can defend yourself in many jurisdictions.

As far as trying to establish an exact timeline of what happened from the moment Zimmerman connected with the non emergency number, I've abandoned it because there are too many variables and generally Zimmerman is not precise enough in his recollection of it to do so with any certainty. Did he initially dial the number on Retreat View Circle immediately after seeing Martin at the bend cutting into the complex? Did he pull over to the clubhouse and initiate the call and started to drive onto Twin Trees as soon as he connected? Did he connect and stay at the clubhouse for a period of time? Without knowing any of that I don't think any sort of accurate timeline can be created. I think we can establish some sort of idea of what happened, but that's about it.

The more important timeline, I believe, starts when Trayvon runs. We can start to piece together roughly what time he runs, where he runs to and the fact he alludes Zimmerman. We can also get an idea when GZ ends his call, and also based on Trayvon's phone records and subsequent 911 calls when the fight intensified and when the shot was fired. While it doesn't prove how things happened one way or another, its a much more useful focus than trying to account for every single footstep that lead them to behind the townhouses, when we have a rough idea of how they got there.

Ultimately, I think the prosecutors will have the same problem the Sanford police had. There is simply a lack of evidence overall with the case to prove any wrongdoing by George Zimmerman. While he may have made some poor decisions that night, nothing he did prior to the confrontation was illegal per say. As for the actual fight, we have no more knowledge of what happened now than we did a year ago. The events remain murky, but as it stands we have no evidence to dispute his claim, and even some of the evidence tends to bolster his narrative.

Prominent Florida lawyer Jose Baez recently commented on the case as well.

"The state is going to have a hard time refuting the claim of self defense- that's where the case can easily be won by the defense," Baez said. "The state not only has to put forward their evidence, they have to exclude every reasonable hypothesis of innocence and do so beyond a reasonable doubt - I don't think they can."

So there you go. The state already has to overcome the fact they have no proof George continued pursuit and no evidence he started the fight, yet they must prove its murder beyond a reasonable doubt. On a side note, I almost wonder if state prosecutors realized from day one that had insufficient evidence in the case to even win a manslaughter charge, which has a much lower legal threshold of proof.  By putting forth a charge of manslaughter and winning, people will think he got off too lightly. By losing, they will look incompetent and unwilling to charge him suitable. With murder, they can at least look like they are attempting to bring him to justice, even if they lack crucial evidence to do so. If they lose they can just shrug it off, say they tried their best and write it off as another great injustice.

Regardless of the outcome, the overwhelming lack of evidence remains. The prosecutors have a long, uphill battle ahead, without a doubt.